📢 On Friday, markets priced in peace. On Saturday, it was gone. Oil fell Friday on reports that the US and Iran were considering a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade of Iranian ports, with Qatar mediating on the sidelines of the UN. Then, on Saturday, Trump said he had rejected Iran's proposal. The White House line: with the US in control of the strait, "we are not in a rush." Trump has also predicted a deal could come after the November midterms.
Meanwhile, the Gulf's backup routes are coming under attack. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline on September 11 after drone attacks launched from Iraq. The Houthis now say they have hit Aramco facilities at Yanbu, the kingdom's Red Sea export port. Add a Fed, an ECB and a BOJ that all hiked this month, and a 10-year Treasury yield that touched 5.225%, its highest since 2007. Every market below is trading the same question: how long does Hormuz stay shut?
⚜️ Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold steadied Friday, with spot settling at $4,284.91, but it still closed out a losing week. The dollar and yields are doing the damage: traders price a nearly 70% chance of an October Fed hike and 95% for December. However, buyers keep stepping in underneath; China imported more than 1,000 tonnes from January through August, more than in all of 2025. Indian demand also picked up as lower prices drew buyers ahead of the festive season.
Saturday's rejection cuts both ways. A long Hormuz closure keeps oil, inflation and yields elevated, which is bearish for gold. But "deal or annihilation" is also exactly the kind of headline that drives safe-haven buying.
On the Daily chart, gold has made lower highs since peaking near $4,690 in late August. RSI sits below its signal line, around 45.
We’re closely watching how price reacts at the two areas of interest highlighted on the chart to help determine its next move. For now, we are patient with a slightly bearish bias.
📈 NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures)
NQ keeps holding up despite rising bond yields. It closed the week at 30,921.75, recovering all of its midweek fall to around 30,370 even as the 10-year yield reached 5.225%, its highest since 2007. AI stocks are still driving the gains: Meta alone rose 16.8% this week.
The risk now is oil. Prices fell on Friday after news of a possible Iran deal, helping NQ rise and stopping yields from climbing further. But that support faded when the deal was rejected on Saturday. Meanwhile, the China trade truce was extended to January 10, although Beijing had not officially confirmed it when the extension was announced.
On the Technical side however, we still see a new all-time high as a matter of when, not if, and it remains our target for the week. The key risk is the 10-year yield. If a Hormuz-driven oil spike sends it back above 5.2%, NQ could test 30,200-30,400 before making that run.