Before we get into it, Happy Father's Day to all the dads in our community. This week, our team is taking a well-earned break. They've worked hard and they deserve every second of it. So instead of our usual full markets breakdown, we're bringing you something different: a deep dive into the story everyone's been talking about.
This is a Special Edition dedicated entirely to SpaceX (SPCX).
On June 12, 2026, Elon Musk's space company went public on the Nasdaq. It raised $75 billion in a single day; the largest IPO in the history of US public markets. The previous record was Saudi Aramco in 2019. SpaceX didn't just break it. It obliterated it.
The stock priced at $135, opened at $150, and finished its first day up nearly 20%. By last Friday it was trading around $185. In under two weeks, early investors were sitting on a 37% gain.
So what is this company, why is the world so excited, and what are the risks that don't always make the headlines?
Three Businesses. One Rocket Ship.
🚀 Rockets: The original business. SpaceX made history by building rockets that land themselves and fly again. In 2015, they achieved what many deemed impossible: landing an orbital-class rocket back on Earth. One booster has now flown 34 times. This reusability slashed launch costs and gave SpaceX an advantage no competitor has matched. The rocket business generates around $4 billion a year, mostly from NASA and Pentagon contracts.
Then there's Starship, a rocket so large it can carry 100+ tonnes to orbit. A single Starship launch could deploy up to 60 next-generation satellites; a potential twenty-fold increase in capacity versus the current Falcon 9. If it works at commercial scale, it changes the economics of everything in space.
📡 Starlink: This is where the real money is. Starlink is a constellation of satellites beaming high-speed internet to virtually anywhere on Earth; ships, aircraft, remote villages, war zones. No cables needed. Just a dish and a monthly fee. By early 2026, Starlink had surpassed 10 million active customers across 160 countries. It generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 (61% of the entire company) and is the only segment confirmed as profitable.
The economics are beautiful: once the satellites are in orbit, adding a new customer costs almost nothing. Every subscriber is nearly pure profit. Billions of people still don't have reliable internet. That is a very large market.
🤖 xAI: The wildcard. In February 2026, SpaceX acquired Elon Musk's AI company xAI, with plans to eventually build data centres in orbit, using space to power AI workloads that are too energy-intensive for Earth. Google has already signed a deal paying $920 million per month for compute capacity from xAI's infrastructure. The vision is bold. But the AI segment burned $6.4 billion in 2025, and Grok (xAI's chatbot) hasn't meaningfully challenged ChatGPT or Gemini yet.
💵The Numbers
SpaceX reported $6.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2025, but also a $4.9 billion GAAP net loss. The first number is what the core business earns. The second is the full picture, after Starship development costs and xAI spending. Both are real.
At its peak, SpaceX's market cap briefly exceeded $2.7 trillion, overtaking Amazon, trading at over 90 times its annual revenue. Apple, for comparison, trades at around 8 times. That gap tells you how much of the future investors are already paying for today.
Bull Case 🟢
Starlink's subscriber growth is explosive, and the economics get better with every new user added
Starship, if operational, could unlock entirely new markets: space tourism, in-orbit manufacturing, even asteroid mining
Governments worldwide depend on Starlink; that's pricing power most companies can only dream of
Index inclusion could force roughly $400 billion in automatic buying from funds that must hold the stock once it's added to major indices
Bear Case 🔴
Musk holds 85% of the voting power. Outside shareholders have almost no say in how the company is run
Starship delays topped the IPO's own risk factors list; Musk has warned of bankruptcy if it misses its targets
Revenue per Starlink subscriber has fallen from $99/month in 2023 to $66 by early 2026; more users, less per user, and that math only works if growth never stops
Morningstar calls SpaceX "significantly overvalued" and warns that the xAI unit poses "a material threat of value destruction"
✍️ The Honest Take
SpaceX is a genuinely extraordinary company. What it has done with rockets and satellite internet is real, it works, and it is changing the world. But buying the stock today isn't buying a business at fair value; it's making a bet on a very specific, optimistic version of the next decade, where Starship flies on schedule, Starlink triples its users, and xAI wins in AI.
The question was never whether SpaceX is impressive. It obviously is. The real question is: at $185 a share, how much of that greatness are you already paying for?
We'll be back next week with the full Global Markets Dispatch. Until then — enjoy the break, hug a dad, and as always, stay curious.
— The UE Market Letter Team 👁️🗨️
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