🧪Welcome back to The Technical Corner — our mid-week analysis.
This week markets are pausing for breath, as central-bank pivots and a slate of global data collide to shape risk tone. In the US, the Federal Reserve delivered a ¼ point interest-rate cut, dropping the benchmark rate to the 3.75 %-4.00 % range — the second reduction this year. The decision comes amid a cloudy economic outlook: a labour market that’s showing signs of slowing, key data shrouded by the ongoing federal shutdown, and inflation still elevated enough to keep policy watchers cautious⚠️.
For traders this means we’re operating in a heightened “wait-and-see” environment. Expectations of easier monetary policy are pushing broader risk-assets higher — but policy statements hint caution remains, and the fundamental backdrop remains mixed. The technical picture therefore takes center stage right now.
With markets adjusting to today’s rate decisions, it’s a good time to revisit our analysis and key levels from Sunday. Let’s reassess how price has developed since the week began, and identify where momentum may be shifting as we head into the latter half of the week.
🇪🇺EURUSD — Testing Support After a Sharp Drop
Price has largely moved in line with our Sunday outlook, maintaining a bearish tone, after a short term retracement, throughout the first half of the week. After a brief reaction to today’s rate news, momentum remains soft as the pair tests a key support zone.
EURUSD H4 Chart
Price followed our Sunday bearish bias, rejecting from the FVG area.
The pair extended lower into the 1.1600 zone, showing signs of short-term rejection.
If minor bearish structure breaks, a temporary retracement higher is possible.
Bias remains sell-side, unless we see a confirmed shift in structure.
🇯🇵USDJPY — Still Riding the Bullish Momentum
USDJPY continues to respect our Sunday bullish outlook, with price holding firm despite brief intraday pullbacks. The pair remains supported by strong dollar demand and ongoing policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ.
USDJPY H4 Chart
Price held above key support zones, maintaining a higher-timeframe bullish structure.
Dips are being quickly absorbed, showing strong buyer interest around 151.50–152.00.
As long as price stays above this range, the bias remains bullish, with upside targets near recent highs.
A confirmed break below 151.00 would be the first sign of weakening momentum.
🟢Nasdaq (NQ) — Retracement Favored After Rate Cut Boost
Markets initially reacted positively to the Fed’s rate cut, with tech stocks leading the move higher as lower yields supported risk appetite. However, after the sharp rally early in the week, NQ now appears to be pausing as traders digest the policy shift.
NQ Futures H4 Chart
Price surged following the Fed’s rate cut, tapping into the upper end of the recent range.
We’re now seeing early signs of retracement, as price begins to cool from its highs.
Ideally, a pullback toward the 50% level of the current range (≈ 25,600) would offer a healthier base before any continuation higher.
This zone also aligns with the new weekly opening gap, providing confluence for potential support.
Overall bias: Still bullish, but awaiting a deeper retracement before looking for new longs.
📋Key Takeaways
Today’s rate cut has injected fresh volatility, prompting short-term shifts across major pairs and indices.
EURUSD continues to respect our bearish outlook, though short-term retracements remain possible.
USDJPY maintains bullish momentum, supported by policy divergence and strong dollar demand.
NQ remains structurally bullish but could benefit from a retracement toward the 50% range before resuming higher.
👁️🗨️Final Word
As markets digest the Fed’s latest move, conditions may remain choppy through the week’s close. It’s a good moment to step back, reassess open positions, and ensure every trade aligns with your plan. Flexibility is key — the best traders adapt quickly, not emotionally.
Stay sharp, manage risk, and trade with intention 👁️🗨️.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.