📰Last week was a policy-divergence week with geopolitics quietly turning louder: the Fed meeting sat at the center of global risk pricing amid thin/uneven US data after the autumn shutdown disruptions.
At the same time, Europe’s political risk premium kept rising (migration politics hardening), while the EU moved closer to turning frozen Russian assets into a long-term strategic tool for Ukraine support — a shift that matters for EUR risk sentiment.
In Japan, the earthquake/tsunami warnings briefly reminded markets how quickly “risk-off” can appear — and why the yen is never just a rate story.
🎙️Now, that same storyline rolls straight into next week’s catalysts (15–19 Dec): US payrolls (delayed NFP), flash PMIs, US CPI, and the BoJ decision—with ECB/BoE also in focus.
🇪🇺EURUSD - Europe’s politics meets Fed pricing
Last week (8–12 Dec): EURUSD traded like a confidence gauge. As the market leaned into the Fed meeting, the euro struggled to build sustained upside because Europe’s backdrop stayed politically noisy: migration and security debates are feeding fragmentation risk, and the EU’s tougher posture on Russia-linked assets underscored that geopolitics is now policy in Europe. That mix tends to cap EUR rallies when global growth/risk isn’t clean.
EURUSD Weekly Projection on the Hourly Chart
🔎 This Week: