📰 This was a week that felt like a rollercoaster finally slowing down. For months, markets had been trading with one eye on the Middle East, where the US, Israel, and Iran have been locked in conflict. By Friday, news broke that the US and Iran had agreed on the "final" wording of a peace deal, according to Pakistan's prime minister, who has been helping broker the talks. That single headline did more to move markets this week than almost anything else; oil and gold both sold off hard as the fear premium that had been baked into prices for weeks started to unwind.
🚀 Adding to the drama, Friday also brought the largest IPO in stock market history. SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, priced at $135 a share, and promptly jumped 19% on debut to close near $161; briefly valuing the company above $2.25 trillion and making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire on paper. It was a huge, headline-grabbing distraction from the geopolitical story, and a reminder that even in a tense week, Wall Street still finds room for a party.
Looking ahead to June 15–19
The big one is the Federal Reserve meeting on June 17. After months of sticky inflation, driven partly by the energy shock from the Middle East conflict, markets are now pricing in a real chance the Fed could lean hawkish again, even after holding rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% since March.
The ECB just raised rates on Thursday for the first time since 2023, so the global tone is shifting toward "higher for longer," not lower. If the Iran deal actually gets signed early in the week, expect a fast unwind of safe-haven positioning across gold, oil, and the yen; but also watch for "sell the rumour, buy the fact" type reversals if the deal disappoints or gets delayed again, which has happened more than once this year.
🛢️ Oil — WTI and Brent
[Left] WTI (USOIL) & BRENT (UKOIL) [Right] Daily Chart
This was the week the "war premium" started coming out of oil. Brent fell over 4% and WTI nearly 4.5% on the week, with both contracts dropping more than a dollar on Friday alone as the peace deal headlines landed.
Brent ended around $89, WTI around $86.50
The drop reflects investors unwinding bets on a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil tankers.
Watch for:
Any sign the Iran deal collapses (it's happened before this year), that would send oil snapping back up fast
Actual shipping traffic data through the Strait, since "peace on paper" takes time to translate into "oil flowing normally"
⚜️ Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold has been the cleanest mirror of the geopolitical mood all year, and this week it cracked. After flirting with $4,200+, gold eased back below that level as the same peace-deal optimism that hit oil pulled the rug out from under the safe-haven trade.
XAUUSD (Gold) Daily Chart
Gold slipped toward the low $4,100s by Friday, with price taking out the March lows, just as we outlined in last week’s analysis.
That move confirms the downside pressure is no longer just a pullback, it is now a structural break.
The next key area to monitor is whether gold can reclaim back above the $4,290–$4,330 zone, where the recent breakdown level and moving-average resistance sit.
Failure to reclaim that area keeps the path open for another leg lower, with $4,050, $4,000, and potentially the high-$3,800s becoming the next downside magnets.
Inflation remains the other side of the story. Sticky inflation usually supports gold, but right now geopolitical relief is winning.
Watch for:
FOMC Meeting: any hawkish surprise could actually put a floor under gold even as the war premium fades, because higher-for-longer rates and inflation worries don't disappear just because a ceasefire holds.
Gold has taken liquidity below the March lows. Now we monitor the key reclaim levels. If price fails there, the next clean move is likely lower.
📈 NQ/ES Futures (Nasdaq 100 & S&P 500)
US equities have had a wild few weeks. The Nasdaq fell over 7% from its June 1 all-time high before clawing some of it back this week. Two forces are pulling in opposite directions: relief over the Middle East easing (good for stocks) versus growing nerves about whether AI-related spending is actually paying off (bad for tech-heavy indices).
[Left] Nasdaq Futures, S&P 500 Futures [Right] Daily Chart
Technically, both NQ and ES had a strong reaction from their Weekly Key Levels, which is exactly what bulls needed to see.
NQ reacted from the 28,300–28,500 zone, while ES reacted from the 7,280–7,320 zone, showing buyers are still defending the higher-timeframe support areas.
Price has now pushed back above short-term resistance, and as long as these Weekly Key Levels continue to hold, we are looking for higher prices.
For NQ, the next upside area to monitor is back toward 29,750–30,150, with a stronger continuation opening the door back toward the recent highs.
For ES, holding above the Weekly Key Level keeps the focus on 7,480–7,560, with the June highs becoming the next major upside target if momentum continues.
US stocks rose Friday as oil eased and SpaceX's blockbuster debut added a layer of excitement.
The SpaceX listing wasn't just a one-off story; some on Wall Street think it opens the door for other major private companies, with OpenAI and Anthropic specifically mentioned, to follow with their own listings later this year.
Watch for:
FOMC decision: this is the single biggest catalyst of the week for ES and NQ, especially after recent inflation prints.
Equities reacted strongly from their Weekly Key Levels. As long as those zones hold, the path of least resistance is higher, but the FOMC decision will decide whether this bounce turns into continuation or gets faded.
🇪🇺 EURUSD
The euro is quietly having a decent run, sitting just under 1.16 and on track for a weekly gain. Two things are driving this: a softer US dollar, helped by the Middle East de-escalation, and the ECB's surprise rate hike on Thursday; its first since 2023.
EURUSD 4H Chart
EURUSD is trading around 1.1565, with price recovering from the recent lows but still sitting below a key resistance/POI around 1.1620–1.1640.
A clean reclaim of that zone would open the door for higher prices toward 1.17+, but failure there keeps the risk of another move lower toward 1.15 and 1.14.
The ECB hike, plus an upward revision to its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, signals European policymakers are taking inflation seriously too.
Watch for:
If the Fed also turns hawkish next week, it could cap euro gains; both central banks tightening at once tends to keep this pair range-bound rather than trending hard either way.
EURUSD is bouncing, but the real test is the 1.1620–1.1640 resistance zone. Reclaim it, and euro can push higher. Reject there, and downside risk returns.
🇯🇵 USDJPY
The yen has had a rough run, with USDJPY pushing up toward 160.50 — near levels that have triggered intervention chatter from Japanese officials in the past. Strong US inflation data and expectations the Fed will stay tight have kept the dollar bid against the yen.
USDJPY 4H Chart
USDJPY is trading around 160.50, sitting inside the key intervention zone where Japanese authorities have historically become more vocal.
Technically, price is holding above the H4 key level around 160.00–160.20, which keeps the bullish structure intact for now.
As long as price holds above this zone, the next upside target remains 161.00+, with a clean break higher potentially opening the door toward 165.00.
The risk is intervention. If Japan steps in verbally or directly, this pair can reverse aggressively, so chasing highs around 160–161 carries headline risk.
This pair is extremely sensitive to the Fed so any hawkish tilt next week could push it even higher, putting more pressure on Japanese authorities to respond.
Watch for:
Verbal intervention, or actual intervention, from Japan's Ministry of Finance if 160 becomes a magnet; this has been a recurring theme whenever USDJPY gets uncomfortably high.
USDJPY is still bullish above 160, but this is the danger zone. Higher prices are possible, but intervention risk rises with every push above 160.
🧩 Final word
This week gave markets a bit of everything: geopolitical relief, softer oil, a bounce in risk assets, pressure on gold, dollar strength, and one of the biggest IPO stories the market has ever seen. The relief trade was real; oil cooled, equities found a bid, and safe-haven demand unwound. But a calmer geopolitical tape does not mean risk has disappeared; it simply means the market has shifted its attention.
Next week, the focus moves to the Fed. A dovish tone could extend the risk-on move, but if inflation keeps the Fed hawkish, this relief rally could be tested quickly. So the message is simple; watch the key levels, watch the reaction, and do not chase headlines blindly. This week was about relief. Next week is about confirmation.
Stay sharp. Stay informed. Stay Patient
and as always… Happy Trading!
— The UE Market Letter Team 👁️🗨️
Curious what it looks like to actually trade these markets in real time? Follow Evaris's journey on X: @UE_Trades
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