📰 Almost nothing that happens in markets over the next few days will matter as much as three days from now. On Friday, August 28, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh steps up to the podium at the Jackson Hole Symposium, his first big speech since taking the job, and traders everywhere are trying to guess what he'll say. We'll get into why that matters for each of today's three ideas. But first, a quick tour of where things stand.
🇯🇵 USD/JPY: The Short We Called Last Week Still Holds
Quick reminder for anyone catching up: last week we posted a short position on USD/JPY (that just means we think the dollar will keep falling against the Japanese yen). Nothing that's happened since has changed our mind, if anything, the case has gotten stronger.
Here's the story. Back on August 1, the US and Japan stepped in together to prop up the yen; a rare move, and a sign of how seriously both governments are taking this. It worked, for a while. But the pair has crept back up toward 160, the same level that triggered the intervention in the first place, and it's been rejected there twice now.
Why does 160 matter so much? Because Japan's finance minister has warned the government will "respond appropriately" if the yen keeps sliding; that's government-speak for "we might step in again." At the same time, the Bank of Japan's own meeting notes flagged rising inflation, with one policymaker saying future rate hikes "could come quicker" than expected. Put those two things together, intervention risk on one side, a central bank leaning toward raising rates on the other, and you get real pressure pushing this pair down.
Where we are on the chart: on the 4-hour chart, price has been rejected from the 159.50–160.80 zone twice this week, most recently stalling right around 160.10.
USDJPY H4 Chart
Invalidation: a close above 161.00 would tell us this idea is wrong — that's our line in the sand.
Target 1: 156.80
Target 2: 155.20
SL: 160.10
What would break this idea: a surprise from Warsh at Jackson Hole that signals more dollar strength ahead, or Japan backing off its hawkish tone, could send this pair right back through 160.
🇪🇺 EUR/USD: The Pullback We've Been Waiting For
While the yen story is about a level being defended, the euro story is about momentum, and it's been strong. EUR/USD touched 1.1710 last week, its best level in three months, before easing back to where it sits today, around 1.1663.
EURUSD Daily Chart
The simple version of why: the European Central Bank looks almost certain to raise rates again in September, while the US Federal Reserve has gone quiet under its new chair. Markets don't love uncertainty, and right now the Fed is the more uncertain of the two, which tends to weigh on the dollar and lift the euro against it.
That pullback from 1.1710 has brought price right back into a zone we like, roughly 1.1600 to 1.1670, which lines up neatly with where buyers stepped in on the way up. This is the kind of dip that, in a genuine uptrend, tends to get bought.
EURUSD H4 Chart
Invalidation: a close below 1.1570 would tell us this uptrend has more problems than we think.
Target 1: 1.1840
What would break this idea: if Warsh's Jackson Hole speech leans more hawkish than expected, even just hinting at a rate hike later this year, the dollar could catch a bid and undo this setup fast. Worth watching closely.
🟢 Robinhood (HOOD): The Loudest Stock of the Week
Let's switch gears from currencies to a single stock, because Robinhood earned its spot in this issue. On August 21, HOOD jumped 13.8% in a single session, closing at $108.13 after trading as low as $98.77 earlier that same day. That's not a typo, that's one trading day.
Robinhood Weekly Chart
What lit the fuse? A few things landing at once:
Robinhood is pushing further into private markets, including a new fund (Robinhood Ventures Fund II) built to give everyday investors access to early-stage startups, the kind of deal that used to be reserved for venture capital firms.
UK customers can now trade crypto directly through the Robinhood app.
US regulators are working on rules that could let Robinhood offer tokenized stocks, essentially, trading real company shares using crypto-style technology. If that happens, it opens up a genuinely new business line.
Wall Street noticed. Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $123 (up from $118), and the average analyst target now sits around $124.73, both comfortably above where the stock trades today.
Zooming out on the chart: on the weekly view, Robinhood has fully recovered from its 2025 pullback and is trading above every major moving average, which is a healthy sign for a longer-term uptrend. Worth remembering: this stock once traded in the $57–65 range years ago, right before its first big breakout. That old zone is now just distant history sitting far below today's price — not a level we're actively watching for a trade, more a reminder of how far this story has come.
The honest part: growth like this comes with a growth-stock price tag. Robinhood trades at over 40 times earnings, which means the market has already priced in a lot of future success. A stock that just jumped nearly 14% in a day can also give a chunk of that back just as fast if the next headline disappoints. This is a "own the story, respect the volatility" situation, not a "set it and forget it" one.
🧩 Final Word
Three very different assets, one shared thread: almost everything this week is waiting on a single speech. Warsh's Jackson Hole address on Friday will shape whether the dollar keeps sliding (good for our euro long and yen short) or snaps back, which would hurt both. Robinhood's story is more its own, driven by real business moves rather than Fed-speak, but a stronger dollar and a risk-off mood tend to hit high-flying growth stocks too.
None of these ideas need to be right immediately. What they need is a plan for when they're wrong, which is why every level above comes with a line we're watching, not just a target we're hoping for.
Stay Informed, Stay Patient, and as always… Happy Trading!
— The UE Market Letter Team 👁️🗨️
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