🗞️This week’s data painted a mixed picture of global momentum. In the euro area, the composite PMI rose to 52.5, its highest in over two years, signalling steady growth in services even as manufacturing flatlined at 50.0. In the U.S., the ADP report showed a 32K decline in private payrolls — hinting at cooling labor conditions — while the ISM Services PMI surprised to the upside at 52.4, underscoring continued resilience. These contrasting signals kept traders cautious, balancing softer employment data against firm business activity.
🎙️With the macro backdrop still uncertain, markets remain in “wait-and-see” mode — the dollar oscillating within range and equities holding steady ahead of Friday’s key employment report.
Against this backdrop, price becomes the guide. In this Mid-Week Technical Corner, we reassess how market structure has evolved since Sunday’s outlook — refining bias as liquidity shifts and new imbalances form. We’ll revisit EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and the Nasdaq-100 (NQ) to map potential momentum through the latter half of the week.
Time to dive into the charts! 📈
🇪🇺 EUR/USD
EURUSD H4 Chart
We anticipated a retracement toward the 1.1620–1.1670 zone before continuation to the downside. However, price extended lower without any meaningful pullback, maintaining bearish momentum.
Current price hovers around 1.1490, just above our sell-side target at 1.1400 highlighted in Sunday’s outlook.
A brief reaction or consolidation may occur here, but overall structure remains bearish.
Any retracement into the prior imbalance or 4H order block could present a continuation short setup in line with the broader bias.
EURUSD H1 Chart
On the Hourly chart, we can observe that
Price is currently trading within a Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), an area that may attract short-term liquidity reactions.
Momentum remains weak, though any strong bullish shift from this zone could signal a short-term reversal.
The 1.1460–1.1520 range is key — reactions here will define whether price continues lower toward 1.1400 or rebounds toward the H4 imbalance above.
Until structure shifts, bias stays bearish, with any bounce viewed as a potential retracement opportunity.
📉Our bias remains bearish unless price reclaims the 1.1550 level with strong momentum.
🇯🇵 USDJPY
USDJPY H4
Our outlook from Sunday has played out precisely — price respected structure and retraced cleanly into the 50% of the range before resuming higher.
The reaction from that midpoint confirms continued bullish order flow, with momentum aligning perfectly with our broader bias.
Price is now drawing toward the buyside target at 154.80, which remains the next key objective.
As long as price holds above 153.00, structure stays intact and the outlook remains bullish.
A clean break above 154.80 would confirm strength and potentially open room toward new highs.
💹Our bias remains bullish – in line with Sunday’s projection, targeting 154.80; potentially higher.
📊NASDAQ Futures (NQ)
NQ H4 Chart
Our outlook continues to hold — price retraced into the 50% level of the current range and found clear support at this key area.
The reaction confirms buyers defending the midpoint, aligning perfectly with our projected scenario from Sunday.
With structure stabilizing, we now anticipate a move higher toward our buyside objectives.
The 25,400–25,600 zone remains a strong accumulation area; as long as price holds above it, the bullish outlook stands.
A decisive break above 25,900–26,000 would likely accelerate momentum toward 26,400+ targets.
🔭 Zooming in on the hourly chart (H1),
NQ H1 chart
Price is retracing slightly after the strong impulsive move from the 25,400 support area.
The 25,650–25,700 zone aligns with the 50% retracement of the recent leg and is our key area of interest.
We’ll be watching this level for potential long setups, in line with the broader bullish structure highlighted on the H4.
As long as price holds above 25,600, the bias remains for continuation higher toward 25,900–26,300.
A clean rejection from this zone would confirm renewed bullish momentum and continuation toward our projected targets; 26,250 - 26,400.
📈Our Bias: Bullish – looking for continuation longs from the 25,650–25,700 area.
This week’s price action continues to validate our Sunday outlook. EUR/USD remains heavy toward 1.1400, USD/JPY is advancing toward 154.80, and Nasdaq-100 holds firm above mid-range support, positioning for further upside.
As momentum and structure remain broadly aligned with our directional bias — patience, precision, and strict risk management remain key as we move through the latter half of the week.
Stay safe, stay disciplined, and happy trading 👁️🗨️.
— The UE Market Letter
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