📰 As markets headed into the final week of February, investors found themselves charting two big global narratives at once — and neither of them was about equities earnings or inflation prints.
First, tensions between the United States and Iran flared up again. Talks are still happening, but tougher warnings from Washington have shifted the mood. Oil ticked higher, risk premia in the Middle East widened, and Gulf markets slipped as traders quietly priced in the chance of disruption.
At the same time, U.S. trade policy made headlines again. A major court ruling struck down part of a high-profile tariff program, but the political response from Washington was to pivot rather than retreat; keeping global trade tensions alive. That’s left global markets in a mix of optimism and uncertainty around the future path of U.S. tariffs.
🎙️ And tied to both of these themes? Safe-haven buying, especially in precious metals like gold, as investors seek cover from geopolitical risk and renewed global tariff strains. Analysts this weekend were talking about gold and silver poised for further gains.
All of this isn’t just background noise - it’s the driver behind how capital is positioning right now.
🔭 Geopolitics, tariffs, safe-haven flows… they don’t move in isolation. They show up directly in currencies, commodities, and equity indices. And this week, the clearest reflection of that global tension is playing out across four key markets:
📈📉EURUSD. USDJPY. XAUUSD. NQ.
🔍 So let’s take a look at how all of this is starting to show up in price — and where the market may be leaning next.
🇪🇺 EURUSD — The Confidence Trade
When the world gets nervous, the dollar tends to benefit.
Right now:
If tensions escalate → USD likely strengthens → EURUSD pressured.
If diplomacy cools things down → risk appetite improves → EUR could breathe.
Europe is watching from the sidelines, but if global trade tensions rise again, that hits European growth expectations — and that matters for the euro.
📝 This week, EURUSD isn’t just about rates.
It’s about global stability.
📊 Let’s take a look at the technicals — and see if price is confirming the narrative.
EURUSD Daily Chart
Price holding inside a key FVG zone — a daily close below would likely confirm fresh downside momentum.
Lower highs since the Year High rejection — structure is gradually weakening.
Break beneath this zone opens room toward prior liquidity and the Year Low.
🗞️ If geopolitics escalate and the dollar bids, this structure aligns with downside continuation. If price reclaims and holds above the FVG, the euro gets room to recover.
🇯🇵 USDJPY — The Tug of War
This pair sits at the crossroads of fear and yield.
Geopolitical tension → JPY safe-haven flows.
Strong U.S. narrative → USD strength.
Rising oil → pressure on Japan’s import-heavy economy.
That creates something important:
👉 Volatility without clarity.
Expect choppier moves. Cleaner trends will likely need a stronger catalyst.
On our side, we opened a position on 9th February — called live on our X account — and have since secured 80% of the profits, with stops now moved to breakeven. Risk off the table. Letting the remainder work.
USDJPY Trade called live on X, currenlty active.
Now, let’s look ahead — and break down what to expect from the market this week.
USDJPY Daily Chart
Bearish bias remains while below the FVG — strong close above would invalidate the short-term downside view.
Rejection from the imbalance zone — sellers defended the area aggressively.
152.18 / 151.54 support in focus — a break opens room toward 149.37 liquidity.
🗞️ Structure leans bearish — but given the macro tug of war, expect volatility before any clean continuation.
⚜️ XAUUSD (Gold) — The Fear Barometer
Gold doesn’t need inflation right now.
It needs uncertainty.
🌐 And uncertainty is everywhere:
Middle East risk.
Trade policy unpredictability.
Global political friction.
As long as headlines remain tense, gold has a reason to stay supported.
If diplomacy breaks through and tensions fade?
Gold could cool quickly.
🗞️ This is a headline-driven metal this week.
📈 Now let’s turn our focus to the technicals and map out what this market may have in store this week.
XAUUSD Daily Chart
Bullish bias remains intact — price is holding above the key demand / imbalance zone.
Momentum shift higher from this level — buyers are defending the structure.
Above the range opens room toward 5,597 short-term target - potentially toward 6000
👉 As long as price holds the indicated zone, the structure supports the uncertainty narrative.
A strong break back below it?
That’s when gold likely cools.
‼️ We’re currently watching gold closely for a potential position — and as always, any entry will be called live on our X account. ‼️
Tech thrives in calm environments.
But:
Tariff talk adds uncertainty to global supply chains.
Geopolitical risk increases overall market risk premium.
Investors become selective instead of aggressive.
🤔 So what do we expect?
Not necessarily a crash.
But possibly wider ranges and sharper reactions to news 📈📉
This is not a “buy everything” environment.
It’s a “prove it to me” environment.
📊 Let’s shift our focus to the charts and see what the price action is revealing.
NQ Futures H4 Chart
Reclaiming the FVG shifts momentum higher — holding above this zone puts 25,465 back in focus.
25,465 is the short-term pivot — break and hold opens room toward 26,000.
Failure to hold the imbalance = back to range lows — structure remains rotational until a clean break.
This fits the narrative: not a crash setup — but a market that needs confirmation before expanding higher.
♟️ In a “prove it” environment, levels matter more than opinions.
🧩 Final Word
This week isn’t about being right.
It’s about being ready.
🎙️ When politics drives markets, conviction must come second to flexibility. Headlines can flip sentiment in minutes. A calm negotiation can lift risk. A single escalation can reverse it just as fast.
The traders who survive weeks like this aren’t the loudest.
They’re the most adaptable.
We don’t need to predict war.
We don’t need to predict policy.
We need to read reaction, manage risk, and execute with discipline 👁️
Because in politically driven markets, overconfidence gets punished — preparation gets paid 💰
“In uncertain times, flexibility is strength — and discipline is edge.”
Let the market show its hand.
Stay sharp, Stay patient, Stay Safe and Happy Trading.
— The UE Market Letter Team 👁️🗨️
© 2026 UE Market Letter. All rights reserved.
The information shared in the UE Market Letter is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. All views expressed reflect the author’s personal analysis and opinions and are not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Trading and investing carry inherent risks and may not be suitable for every investor. Market performance is uncertain — past results do not guarantee future outcomes. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and seek guidance from a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. UE Market Letter and its authors accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the content provided.