📰Last week (17–21 Nov) delivered a messy but defining mix for global markets. The dollar held firm as EURUSD stayed pressured and USDJPY pushed toward cycle highs, supported by wide rate differentials and renewed carry demand. U.S. jobs data surprised on the headline but showed rising unemployment and softer wage growth, keeping the December Fed cut in question. Tech and AI names swung sharply — Nvidia’s earnings euphoria flipped into a broader selloff before stabilising on late-week dovish Fed signals. Meanwhile, Europe’s PMIs painted a steady but uneven picture, and Japan’s new ¥21.3tn stimulus package fuelled fresh yen weakness amid concerns over long-term fiscal strain.
📝This sets the tone for the holiday-shortened week ahead (24–28 Nov), where direction will come from delayed U.S. data — retail sales, PPI, consumer confidence, jobless claims, and the Fed’s Beige Book — alongside crucial Black Friday spending signals. Global sentiment surveys in the Eurozone, Germany, and Japan will reveal whether growth outside the U.S. can keep pace.
With this backdrop of firm dollar momentum, fragile risk appetite, and shifting policy expectations, we now turn to how these forces shape EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold, and the Nasdaq.
🇪🇺EURUSD – Between a Firm Dollar and a Stabilising Eurozone
Last week (17–21 Nov)
The dollar stayed in control, keeping EURUSD heavy even as the euro tried to stabilise above short-term moving averages.
Eurozone data wasn’t disastrous: business activity grew modestly, with services expanding at the fastest pace in ~18 months, while manufacturing slipped back into contraction. That’s resilience, but not enough to decisively outshine the U.S. story.
In the U.S., stronger-than-forecast jobs data but higher unemployment and delayed inflation releases left traders unsure whether the Fed will cut in December — supporting the dollar via uncertainty rather than clear conviction.
EURUSD Weekly Projection on the Hourly Chart
This week (24–28 Nov)
EURUSD will trade around a data catch-up versus confidence theme:
The U.S. releases backlogged retail sales and PPI, plus consumer confidence and jobless claims — all key for rate expectations and the dollar.
The Euro area sees confidence indicators and business surveys, and Germany publishes more detailed growth data.
If U.S. data come in soft while Eurozone surveys hold up, EURUSD gets room for a corrective bounce. Strong U.S. prints or weak Euro sentiment keep the dollar-uptrend narrative alive.
Structurally, EURUSD remains our “global growth vs USD strength” barometer — the pair that reflects whether markets still believe in a soft landing outside the U.S., or retreat back into dollar safety.
🗝️Key takeaway: Mixed Euro data and uncertain Fed path keep EURUSD tilted toward dollar strength.
🇯🇵 USDJPY – Stimulus, Carry and a Soft Yen
Last week (17–21 Nov)
USDJPY pushed to its highest level since January, powered by wide rate differentials and ongoing demand for carry trades while the Fed remains only cautiously dovish.
Politically, Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi unveiled a huge ¥21.3tn stimulus package — subsidies, cash handouts and support for strategic sectors — aimed at reviving growth and cushioning households from rising costs.
Markets welcomed growth support but worried about the fiscal cost, helping push the yen to a 10-month low before a modest rebound.
On the data side, Japan’s manufacturing PMIs still show contraction in factories, even as broader business confidence has begun to improve — a mixed signal that leaves the BoJ in no rush to tighten policy.
USDJPY Weekly Projection on the Hourly Chart
This week (24–28 Nov)