🗞️This week’s landscape remains shaped by the same forces we flagged on Sunday: no major data, a firm U.S. dollar, and lingering uncertainty from the government shutdown, which has frozen key releases like NFP and CPI. With no fresh numbers to trade, markets are leaning heavily on Fed tone, yields, and cross-asset flows.
So far, nothing has shifted the broader narrative:
The 25 bp cut didn’t weaken the dollar, with Powell signaling that further easing isn’t guaranteed.
Firm U.S. yields keep EURUSD pressured and support USDJPY.
Gold continues on its own path without new macro catalysts.
Equities, including NQ, are stabilizing but remain sensitive to policy expectations.
In short: 💵the dollar still leads - Gold is uncertain, and markets are waiting for real data before committing to new trends.
🎙️With the macro backdrop largely unchanged and markets operating without hard economic data, price action becomes our primary guide.
This Mid-Week Technical Corner is a check-in with Sunday’s roadmap. We revisit the same assets—EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold, and NQ—to assess whether price has respected the levels we mapped out, where structure has shifted, and where liquidity is now drawing.
Let’s review how each pair has developed since the weekend and refine the path ahead.
🇪🇺 EUR/USD
EURUSD H4 Chart
EURUSD is reacting exactly where we expected. Price has retraced into the H4 Order Block and is currently treating it as resistance.
Price is currently pressing into the H4 OB, which caused the initial displacement lower.
We haven’t seen a decisive break above this zone yet — structure remains cautious.
If price fails to close strongly above the OB, we could see EURUSD rotate lower back toward the Daily FVG or even revisit deeper liquidity below.
However, if we do get a clean break and displacement above the OB, the next draw becomes 1.17000, which we highlighted on Sunday as the next logical upside liquidity pool.
EURUSD is at a decision point. This OB is key.
A strong close above shifts short-term momentum higher; rejection keeps the bearish narrative intact.
🇯🇵 USDJPY
USDJPY H4 Chart
USDJPY has followed our Sunday outlook perfectly. Price has tapped into our buyside objective at 154.800, completing the expected draw.
With buyside liquidity taken, structure remains firmly bullish.
As long as price holds above the recent OB and short-term support, momentum favors continuation.
We now anticipate a further expansion toward 157.000.
Bias remains bullish while price holds above key intraday supports.
🟨 Gold (XAU/USD)
XAUUSD H4 Chart
Gold has shifted into a clear bullish structure, moving against our initial bias from Sunday.
Price has aggressively displaced higher, breaking prior short-term highs.
We are now approaching the key level at 4218.
A strong close above 4218 would confirm continuation toward higher prices.
Failure to close above may trigger a short-term pullback before any further expansion.
For now, bullish momentum is in control, with 4218 acting as the key decision point.
📊Nasdaq-100 Futures (NQ)
NQ H4 Chart
NQ has played out exactly as anticipated in Sunday’s outlook. Price moved into our expected range and is now consolidating just below short-term highs.
Price reacted cleanly from the 50% retracement zone.
No structural shift — bias remains unchanged.
Our projected targets remain the same, with price still positioned to draw higher once momentum returns.
Overall, NQ continues to respect the roadmap we laid out.
Final Word
This week proves a simple truth: with no major data, price is the clearest guide. The shutdown keeps markets blind, and the Fed’s tone keeps the dollar in charge — yet price action continues to respect the levels we mapped out on Sunday.
EURUSD is stalling at the H4 OB.
USDJPY remains bullish after taking buyside liquidity, eyeing 157.000.
Gold has flipped bullish, with continuation likely if 4218 breaks.
NQ is respecting structure, with targets unchanged.
In a quiet fundamental week, structure remains clean — and reacting to price, not noise, continues to be the edge.
Remember…
Most traders lose not because they’re wrong, but because they’re early.
Stay Safe and Happy Trading!👁️🗨️
— The UE Market Letter Team