The week of 2nd – 8th November 2025 kept the U.S. dollar at the centre of the global market story, as the fifth week of the government shutdown deepened uncertainty and froze key data releases. With traders flying blind, markets leaned heavily on policy tone, yields, and risk sentiment for direction.
Against this backdrop, major assets — EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold (XAU/USD) — all moved in rhythm with the dollar’s behaviour: when USD strength re-emerged, the euro slipped, yen softened, and gold retreated; when the dollar cooled amid funding stress or political tension, the reverse unfolded, with the euro and gold catching brief relief while USD/JPY consolidated.
Dollar Hourly Chart Weekly Projection (02/11/25 - 07/11/25)
With the macro stage defined, we can now break down how these forces shaped individual markets. From the euro’s struggle against a firm dollar, to yen moves anchored by yield spreads, and gold’s balance between safety and strength — each tells a part of the same story.
We now break down how EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold navigated last week’s volatility — and what their next moves may reveal as we enter the new week.
🇪🇺 EUR/USD — Pressured Beneath the Data Fog
The euro remained on the defensive as the dollar’s resilience dominated FX flows. With the ECB sidelined and euro-area data offering little pushback, EUR/USD drifted lower toward the 1.14600 region (closing slightly higher) , mirroring last week’s tone.
EURUSD Hourly Chart Weekly Projection (02/11/25 - 07/11/25)
Hawkish Fed tone + shutdown uncertainty = fewer reasons to sell the dollar.
The euro’s muted growth outlook and steady inflation moderation kept the ECB out of play, further reinforcing the imbalance.
Whenever shutdown worries spurred safe-haven flows into Treasuries, EUR/USD found shallow rebounds, but these were more about temporary dollar dips than euro strength.
🇯🇵 USD/JPY — Yield Differentials Keep the Engine Running
If the euro was weighed down by the dollar, USD/JPY was lifted by it. The pair hovered in the 153.6–154.0 zone, continuing to respect bullish structure as U.S.–Japan yield spreads stayed wide.
USDJPY Hourly Chart Weekly Projection (02/11/25 - 07/11/25)
The Bank of Japan’s dovish stance and its pledge to “monitor speculative moves” provided verbal caution, but little material change.
The shutdown’s uncertainty didn’t dent carry appetite — traders still preferred dollar-denominated yield.
The result: while the dollar powered higher against the euro, it consolidated against the yen — staying firm but cautious near potential intervention levels (Potential 155.00).
🟨 Gold (XAU/USD) — Tug of War Between Dollar Strength and Safe-Haven Demand
Gold spent the week oscillating around the $4,000 zone, caught between two opposing forces: