📰 Over the weekend, the tone shifted. Direct U.S.–Iran talks began, and for the first time since the conflict escalated, oil tankers started moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. On the surface, that looks like progress. But the reality is more fragile.

Flow through Hormuz hasn’t normalised — it’s only partially recovering. Military presence remains high. Infrastructure has been hit. And while diplomacy is moving forward, the region hasn’t stabilised. Lebanon is the clearest reminder of that. Israeli strikes continued even after the ceasefire dynamics began, keeping the risk of escalation alive on the edges.

That’s why markets have calmed, but not committed.

Oil has pulled back from the extremes, yet it’s still elevated. Equities have bounced, but they’re now running into inflation concerns caused by the same energy shock they’re trying to ignore. The dollar has softened slightly, but hasn’t lost its role as a fallback if things turn again.

👉 This is the shift going into the week:

Markets aren’t reacting anymore. They’re deciding whether they moved too early. Because the system isn’t fully repaired. It’s just functioning again — unevenly. So for the week ahead (April 13–17), everything still comes back to one question:

Does oil continue to cool, or does the market realise the calm isn’t stable yet?

From here, every market connects back to one chain reaction:

Energy → Inflation → Policy → Markets

📝 Let’s break it down.

Oil is no longer in panic mode. But it’s not in control either.

After the ceasefire headlines, both WTI and Brent pulled back sharply, but the key detail is where they stopped — still elevated. That tells you the market removed the extreme risk, but kept the underlying concern.

Because reopening Hormuz is not the same as fixing Hormuz.

Flows are inconsistent. Confidence is fragile. And the market knows that one disruption headline can reverse sentiment instantly.

What matters now:

This week’s scenarios:

👉 Takeaway:
Oil is no longer reacting to the war. It’s dictating what happens next.

Gold is in a more complex spot than usual. Normally, it rallies on fear. But this time, higher oil is feeding inflation, which keeps central banks cautious and limits how far gold can run.

Gold is being supported by a softer dollar and fragile ceasefire conditions, but rising energy costs could keep the Fed tighter for longer.

The Chain reaction:

Higher oil → higher inflation → fewer rate cuts → pressure on gold.

This week’s scenarios:

Now let’s see what the charts have to say.

Takeaway:
Bias remains neutral for now — price is sitting at a key level with no clear commitment.
A break and hold above shifts bullish, while rejection keeps the downside in play.

Equities rallied hard on relief. But here’s the problem:
They’re celebrating the easing of a shock, while still dealing with its consequences.

The same oil spike that triggered the selloff is now feeding into inflation data. That puts markets in a difficult position:

For NQ, this matters more. Tech is highly sensitive to rates.
For ES, the move is broader — but still exposed to the same pressure.

This week’s scenarios:

Now let’s see how price is actually reacting.

Above → continuation higher, confirming the low
Rejection → move back toward weekly FVG zones (23,250 NQ / 6,400 ES)

Takeaway: Clean bounce, but with no deal yet between the U.S. and Iran, this move can still fade if tensions rise again.

EURUSD has shifted back into a confidence pair. During the peak of the war, the dollar gained on safe-haven demand and Europe’s energy exposure. But with the ceasefire, that move started to unwind. As Reuters reported, the euro rose to around $1.173 as traders sold dollars and priced out some of the worst-case risk.

That doesn’t mean the euro is fully safe. Europe is still exposed to energy shocks, which keeps EURUSD highly sensitive.

If oil continues to calm → euro stays supported
If Hormuz tensions return → dollar quickly regains strength

This week’s scenarios:

Let’s dive into the charts.

Takeaway: Early strength is clear, but it still needs follow-through; a sustained hold above this level over the next few sessions is what confirms this move has real conviction.

This is where things get interesting.

Normally, a geopolitical crisis would support the yen, but this time Japan is also being hit by the energy side of the story. As Reuters reported, rising oil costs pushed Japan’s wholesale inflation higher and lifted import prices, putting the Bank of Japan on alert.

At the same time, the yen hasn’t fully regained its safe-haven role. It remains under pressure due to low rates and energy dependence, with USDJPY still elevated.

This tells you something important: this is no longer a simple fear trade — it’s a fear trade shaped by energy.

This week’s scenarios:

Let’s see what the charts have to say.

Bullish case: Break and hold above → opens move toward 165 level

Bearish: Loss of the 158 zone → deeper pullback toward 155 support (highlighted zone)

Takeaway:
Bias remains slightly bullish, with structure still intact, but it needs a clear break and hold above 160.00 to confirm continuation.

The market has stepped back from the edge… but it hasn’t stepped out of uncertainty. What we have right now isn’t resolution — it’s a pause. And that’s why things feel confusing. Some signals point to relief, others still point to risk.

Politically, the focus remains on Iran. That’s the core of the story, and any shift there — escalation, breakdown in talks, or even mixed messaging — can quickly change sentiment again. The situation is not fully under control, and the market knows it.

But from a market perspective, the picture is clearer: oil is still the driver.

As long as energy remains elevated or unstable, it feeds into inflation, keeps central banks cautious, and limits how far risk assets can push. If oil continues to cool, markets can stabilise and extend relief. But if it turns back higher, everything else adjusts with it — gold, the dollar, equities, all of it.

One story, many markets. And right now, that story still runs through oil.

Stay safe, stay adaptable, and happy trading.

— The UE Market Letter Team 👁️‍🗨️

We are living in volatile times. While you cannot control the state of international affairs, you can position your portfolio accordingly.

Liquid is one of the fastest growing trading platforms, allowing users to trade stocks, commodities, FX, and more 24/7/365 from their phone and computer.

Trade 24/7 on Liquid

^{© 2026 UE Market Letter. All rights reserved.
_{The information shared in the UE Market Letter is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. All views expressed reflect the author’s personal analysis and opinions and are not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Trading and investing carry inherent risks and may not be suitable for every investor. Market performance is uncertain — past results do not guarantee future outcomes. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and seek guidance from a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. UE Market Letter and its authors accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the content provided.}}