📰 Over the weekend, the tone shifted. Direct U.S.–Iran talks began, and for the first time since the conflict escalated, oil tankers started moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. On the surface, that looks like progress. But the reality is more fragile.

Flow through Hormuz hasn’t normalised — it’s only partially recovering. Military presence remains high. Infrastructure has been hit. And while diplomacy is moving forward, the region hasn’t stabilised. Lebanon is the clearest reminder of that. Israeli strikes continued even after the ceasefire dynamics began, keeping the risk of escalation alive on the edges.

That’s why markets have calmed, but not committed.

Oil has pulled back from the extremes, yet it’s still elevated. Equities have bounced, but they’re now running into inflation concerns caused by the same energy shock they’re trying to ignore. The dollar has softened slightly, but hasn’t lost its role as a fallback if things turn again.

👉 This is the shift going into the week:

Markets aren’t reacting anymore. They’re deciding whether they moved too early. Because the system isn’t fully repaired. It’s just functioning again — unevenly. So for the week ahead (April 13–17), everything still comes back to one question:

Does oil continue to cool, or does the market realise the calm isn’t stable yet?

From here, every market connects back to one chain reaction:

Energy → Inflation → Policy → Markets

📝 Let’s break it down.

Oil is no longer in panic mode. But it’s not in control either.

After the ceasefire headlines, both WTI and Brent pulled back sharply, but the key detail is where they stopped — still elevated. That tells you the market removed the extreme risk, but kept the underlying concern.

Because reopening Hormuz is not the same as fixing Hormuz.

Flows are inconsistent. Confidence is fragile. And the market knows that one disruption headline can reverse sentiment instantly.

What matters now: