📰 Oil is back above $100 a barrel for the first time since spring and the shock is spreading far beyond the energy market.
[Left] (US OIL) WTI & (UK OIL) Brent Weekly Chart [Right]
Iranian forces reportedly targeted US Navy vessels and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi fighters seized Yemen’s Red Sea coast, threatening a second major shipping chokepoint. A separate attack also forced Saudi Arabia to shut down a key pipeline.
That is the backdrop to Friday’s hot US inflation report, the ECB’s rate hike—and three major central-bank decisions within just 48 hours.
The Federal Reserve moves on Wednesday, September 16, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday, September 17, and the Bank of Japan across September 17-18.
Oil has reignited the inflation problem. Now, central banks must decide how to respond.
With that in mind, let’s look at how this collision between war, oil and interest rates could affect each asset we are watching this week.
⚜️ Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold finished the week near $4,349, little changed despite sharp swings in both directions.
On one side, coordinated rate hikes are bearish for a metal that pays no yield. On the other, a war threatening two major shipping chokepoints is exactly the kind of safe-haven story that keeps buyers returning.
Thursday’s hot US producer-price report sent gold down nearly 2%, before Friday’s mixed inflation data helped it recover most of the decline.
That tension remains unresolved. We are staying neutral until Wednesday’s Fed decision, and its updated rate projections, give the market a clearer direction.
On the daily chart: the rejection from this month's high is clean, and price is now working its way down toward a specific zone below.
Trading around $4,349, down from the $4,700 high earlier this month
Next demand zone: $4,135-$4,195
RSI has rolled over out of overbought, now neutral and no oversold signal yet
Technically this leans bearish into that zone, but given the fundamental tug-of-war above, we're treating it as a level to watch rather than a trade to force.
📈 NQ / ES (Nasdaq100 and S&P500 Futures)
Stocks suffered their roughest stretch in months, falling for four consecutive sessions as oil prices and Treasury yields climbed. Friday’s relief rally softened the damage, leaving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down around 0.8% and 0.7% for the week.
The fundamental picture hasn’t changed. Strong economic data gives the Fed room to hike, a headwind for stocks near their highs, but it also confirms the economy isn’t cracking. That is why this hasn’t developed into a real selloff.
Wednesday’s decision, and the tone of the press conference and new dot plot, is now the biggest swing factor for equities this month.
On the charts: both of last week's intraday targets did their job, and price is now consolidating in a well-defined range.
[Left] NQ pinned between a daily FVG at 29,800-30,000 and demand at 29,100-29,200 (ES: 7,760-7,800 / 7,620-7,660)[Right]
Price sits around 29,390 / 7,660 lower-middle of the range
We're not forcing a breakout call yet: the bias leans toward fading strength back into the range this week, but Monday's open decides whether that holds.
Last week’s Intraday positions on NQ
Last week's 29,370 and 29,100 levels both got tagged (NQ Hourly Chart)
Read last week’s article to see how we mapped out the conditions for a valid setup, and used them to catch two intraday opportunities:
🇪🇺 EUR/USD
The ECB raised rates for the second time this year the previous week, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%. Lagarde called the decision “a no-brainer,” the vote was unanimous, and officials are already pointing to October as a possible date for a third hike.
That should have supported the euro. Instead, EUR/USD slipped during the week and closed near 1.1599. Friday’s hot US core inflation reading increased expectations of a Fed hike, outweighing the impact of the ECB’s move.
Both central banks are now firmly hawkish, making this far from a one-sided trade. Wednesday’s Fed decision will likely determine which side controls the next move.
On the 4 Hour chart: price is still consolidating in the same range we've been tracking, sitting just above our open target zone.
Trading around 1.1598, inside a 1.1544-1.1640 range
Repeated rejection from 1.1640-1.1659 keeps the bias pointed down
Free-roll short from two weeks ago still open, targeting 1.1510–1.1540
This is still the swing trade we mapped out last week; we're watching Monday's open to decide whether to hold it into the target zone or close it out.
🇬🇧 GBP/USD
The BOE is the one genuine toss-up on this week’s calendar. In July, its Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members already calling for a rise to 4%.
Since then, UK inflation has climbed from 2.6% to 2.9%, driven by the same energy shock affecting other economies. August’s UK inflation figures will be released on the morning of Wednesday, September 16, just hours before the Fed’s decision and one day before the BOE votes on Thursday.
A hot reading could push the committee towards a rate hike. A softer figure would allow the majority to maintain that the impact of higher energy prices remains contained. Unlike the Fed or BOJ, the BOE’s decision is still genuinely uncertain. That leaves GBP/USD more exposed to a real surprise this week, rather than an outcome markets have already priced in.
On the hourly chart: this lines up neatly with the fundamental toss-up above; price is sitting right at a resistance shelf just as the week's most uncertain decision approaches.
Trading around 1.3526, just below a 1.3532-1.3536 resistance shelf
Already rejected here once this week, dropping to 1.3492 before recovering
A close back above 1.3536 would shift the picture
It's a potential setup, but nothing's triggered yet. We want to see how price opens Monday before committing to a direction.
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🇯🇵 USD/JPY
USD/JPY was by far the biggest mover of the week, falling to around 153.50; its lowest level in seven months. Markets are now treating a BOJ rate hike to 1.25% on Thursday, its highest level in roughly 31 years, as close to a done deal.
The biggest shift has come from Prime Minister Takaichi. Historically one of the strongest opponents of BOJ tightening, she now has her own economic adviser predicting a hike. The reason is simple: the weak yen has become a cost-of-living problem faster than higher rates could threaten her spending plans.
Treasury Secretary Bessent has also been pushing Tokyo to act. With the Fed, BOE and BOJ all announcing decisions within 48 hours, USD/JPY’s next move may reveal as much about the other two central banks as it does about Japan.
USDJPY on the Daily Chart
Trading around 153.50, a fresh multi-month low
Next support: 152.16 - the February low
The 159.00-160.60 zone that capped this pair now sits overhead as resistance
No fresh setup yet - we're letting Monday's open play out and will map exact levels for the week on Tuesday.
🧩 Final Word
Strip away the noise, and this week comes down to one question asked four different ways: how much further are central banks willing to raise rates while war keeps oil above $100 a barrel?
The ECB has already given its answer. The Fed, BOE and BOJ will follow within roughly 48 hours of one another, beginning on Wednesday. Most of those decisions are close to fully priced in. The BOE is the exception, with its decision still genuinely up for grabs.
That is often where the biggest risk lies, not in the outcomes everyone expects, but in the one markets have yet to fully price.
Technically, almost every chart above is telling the same story. Price is sitting at a key level, waiting for Monday’s open to determine the next move.
Stay Safe and as always… Happy Trading!
— The UE Market Letter Team 👁️🗨️
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